Opta give Liverpool just 30.5% chance ahead of Man Utd clash

There’s a feeling that Sunday’s clash at Old Trafford is as much about avoiding defeat as it is chasing victory, but the latest data suggests we may already know how it’s likely to play out for Liverpool.

With both sides pushing to secure Champions League football, the stakes are high on paper, yet the reality is a little more nuanced given how the table is shaping up.

Opta prediction gives Liverpool slight disadvantage

According to Opta Analyst, this weekend’s historically standout fixture is expected to be incredibly tight, with the numbers pointing towards a finely balanced contest rather than a clear winner.

The data-led preview explains: “Man Utd and Liverpool are deemed the most likely draw”, underlining just how little separates the two sides heading into the game.

Jamie Carragher has also backed a draw in the game, one which feels the least high stakes match-up between the clubs for many years.

However, when it comes to outright probability, the edge is given to the hosts, with the report stating: “A United win – which has a 42.8% likelihood according to the supercomputer – would complete a league double.”

In comparison, we are given a 30.5% chance of victory, which reflects both United’s recent form and our struggles against top sides this season.

That said, the history at Old Trafford offers some encouragement, with Liverpool winning three of our last five away league games there, matching the total from the previous 18 visits combined.

Draw outcome feels most realistic scenario

What stands out most from Opta’s analysis is not just the win probabilities, but the likelihood of a stalemate, which is calculated at 26.7%, making it the most probable outcome of any fixture this weekend.

That aligns closely with what we’ve seen on the pitch recently, because while Arne Slot’s side have won three consecutive matches, performances haven’t always been convincing, especially against teams in the top three.

There’s also the added uncertainty surrounding Mo Salah, with the Egyptian forward forced off against Crystal Palace, although the club have since confirmed he is expected to return before the end of the season.

If he doesn’t feature, it would deny him one final chance to add to his remarkable record against Manchester United, having already scored more away goals against them than any player in Premier League history.

Put all of that together, and it feels like a game where neither side will want to take too many risks, which only strengthens the argument that a draw is not just likely, but perhaps the most logical outcome.