Liverpool come into the winter window with a few key factors in mind:
The club publicly emphasises that their transfer strategy is ongoing and year-round, not limited to “just January or summer.” At the same time, there’s a recognition that January windows are inherently tricky: fewer targets available, costs higher (or clubs reluctant to sell mid-season), and the danger of disrupting momentum. Indeed, the club’s assistants have suggested that the lack of heavy activity in past January windows is intentional — they prefer to invest in summer when possible. That means that while there could be major incoming/outgoing moves, the default expectation is one of restraint — unless something forces a change (injurations, unexpected departures) in the squad.
So: Liverpool approach January with a measured mindset — ready to act if the price is right and the fit is clear, but also comfortable if they choose to stand pat.
2. What they are reportedly targeting
Despite caution, there are some serious names linked to January moves — signalling that the ambition remains high.
Reports claim Liverpool are prepared to spend around €230 million (≈ £202 m) in January, targeting three high-profile players across defence and midfield. The trio reportedly being targeted: Eduardo Camavinga (midfielder, currently at Real Madrid) — seen as the “primary target”. Liverpool reportedly willing to offer close to €60 m. Vitinha (midfielder, PSG) — seen as an ideal addition for the engine-room, with a price tag cited at around €90 m. Alessandro Bastoni (centre-back, Inter Milan) — viewed as a long-term heir to the ageing defensive core; Liverpool reportedly willing to offer around €80 m. In short: if Liverpool were to act big in January, they are looking at significant investment — not stop-gap signings, but long-term prospects. At the same time, there are indications that Liverpool are not pursuing certain targets in January: for example, the club are reportedly not planning a January move for Marc Guéhi — preferring to let him run down his contract and sign him free next summer.
3. What they might actually do in January – realistic scenario
Given the above, let’s consider what is likely under current conditions.
Incomings
It’s probably less likely that Liverpool will make multiple blockbuster signings in January. While the ambition is there, buying mid-season carries risks (integration, disturbance, window timing). More likely: if they sign someone, it may be a “ready to go” player rather than a huge gamble — or they may defer major moves to summer and use January for smaller, strategic acquisitions or cover. For example, the narrative that they are open to a “cheap and reliable solution” in January (especially in defensive midfield) is found in older reporting. The big three names (Camavinga / Vitinha / Bastoni) may well be plans for summer, with January used to set groundwork — negotiations, tracking, but not necessarily finalised deals.
Outgoings
Liverpool appear more comfortable keeping the squad somewhat stable rather than offloading key players in January. Past January windows have seen Liverpool focus on loans or development moves out rather than major sales. Example: in January 2025, they had no major incoming signings, only outgoings/loans for younger players. So unless some unexpected sale opportunity appears (or a player requests a move), Liverpool are unlikely to make major sales mid-season.
Strategic position
Liverpool’s posture: “we’re ready, but not desperate.” They will act if a deal makes strategic sense — fits the long-term plan, offers value, integrates quickly. They are conscious of injury risk: if several first-team players get injured, the window may become more reactive. But absent that trigger, Liverpool seem happy to wait for smarter business in summer rather than make reactive buys in January.
4. Risks and opportunities
Risks
Squad stagnation: If rivals strengthen in January and Liverpool don’t, they could fall behind in the title/European race. Injuries: If key players pick up long-term injuries, their reluctance to buy mid-season could backfire. Missing out on deals: By targeting big names and potentially deferring them, Liverpool risk losing top targets to other clubs. Integration mid-season: If they sign large players now, fitting them in during the push for trophies can be difficult.
Opportunities
Better value in summer: By holding fire in January, Liverpool might get better deals in the summer window. Strategic clarity: January can be used to prepare for summer — negotiate early, monitor players, set groundwork without rushing. Squad continuity: Keeping the core intact helps maintain form and momentum; less disruption equals more stability. Smart opportunism: If a top target becomes available unexpectedly (e.g., a club under pressure to sell), Liverpool are in position to act decisively.
5. What to watch for in the coming weeks
Here are some indicators that will hint at how active Liverpool will be:
Injury list: If multiple first-team players pick up injuries, expect urgency and potential signings. Contract news: The status of key players (renewals, contract expiry) can force moves — e.g., if a key player refuses to sign, Liverpool may need to buy sooner. Target availability: If players like Bastoni, Camavinga or Vitinha become available and willing to move, Liverpool may accelerate plans. Outgoings: High-value sales or loans might free up funds and allow recruitment. Market signals: If Liverpool open negotiations behind the scenes (agents, clubs) this month, then January may see action; if not, it likely remains low-key.
6. My verdict: the most likely scenario
Given all the above, here’s how I currently assess Liverpool’s January transfer window chances:
They won’t make a flurry of major signings. A blockbuster signing is possible — but only if a key target becomes available and the price/fit align. They are more likely to make one impactful signing or some strategic cover — someone who’s ready, fits the system, and doesn’t require a long bedding-in period. The big moves (for the big names) are probably reserved for the summer, with January used for groundwork. Outgoings will be limited to loans or development moves; major sales are unlikely unless a compelling bid arrives. Overall: a moderate window, focused more on long-term planning than instant overhaul.