Liverpool’s trip to Manchester City is one of the Premier League’s defining fixtures of the early season and, according to the data, we’ll need to defy the numbers to win.
Opta prediction favours City but Salah could make history
Opta’s supercomputer ran 10,000 pre-match simulations and made Manchester City the favourites, giving Pep Guardiola’s side a 45.4% chance of victory compared to 27.7% for Liverpool and 26.9% for a draw.
It’s another reminder of how fine the margins are between the league’s top sides, with both teams separated by a single point – City on 19, Liverpool on 18.
The data also highlights the individual battles that could define Sunday’s clash.
Erling Haaland needs just two goals to reach 100 Premier League strikes, while Mo Salah is one goal or assist away from surpassing Wayne Rooney’s record for most goal involvements at a single club.
No player has more goal contributions against City than Salah, who has directly been involved in 15 goals (nine scored, six assisted) versus Guardiola’s side – a statistic that underlines his importance once again.
That attacking threat will be boosted by the possible return of Alexander Isak, with our boss confirming in his pre-match update that the Swede is back in full training and could feature after three weeks out.
Although our No.9 could be back in the squad, the manager warned supporters not to expect him to be“at his best immediately”.
Liverpool’s recent form points to Anfield-style performance
The 1–0 win over Real Madrid in midweek proved we can still dominate Europe’s elite.
Opta’s post-match data showed we generated 2.58 expected goals to Madrid’s 0.45, the kind of control that will be needed again if we’re to get anything from the Etihad.
There’s also renewed confidence in defence, with Virgil van Dijk marshalling a back line that restricted Madrid to just eight shots.
Andy Robertson’s resurgence, as noted by Slot ahead of facing City, gives us increased balance down the left.
If there’s one area that could tilt things, it’s creativity.
Florian Wirtz has quietly become one of our key playmakers, creating five chances in one half against Madrid, the most by any Liverpool player in a single half since January.
So, while the numbers may favour City, we’ve seen this before – it’s a bold move to write us off.
And with Salah chasing history, Isak returning, and Slot’s men rediscovering rhythm, the only stat that will matter this weekend is the scoreline at full-time.